hamidreza izadi; Maryam Izadi
Abstract
With regard to the importance of oil price changes in Iran’s oil revenues as an oil exporter and its effects on it's economy, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the oil shocks on the changes of the most important index of the Stock Exchange in Iran called the total price index. ...
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With regard to the importance of oil price changes in Iran’s oil revenues as an oil exporter and its effects on it's economy, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the oil shocks on the changes of the most important index of the Stock Exchange in Iran called the total price index.
Introduction
Investigating the price of shares in stock exchange and studying and controlling the investment market, which is an important part of financial markets in every country, play an important role in policy making and applying macro-economic policies. Controlling available savings and liquidity and conducting them towards different parts of national economics, this market leads to the investigation and transmission of investment to economic institutions and thereby providing future perspectives of economic firms. Given the fact during a short period of time, shock and the intensity of the movement of liquidity and capital of both the private sector and people of society in transfering from economic parts to non-economic ones are high, the recognition and introduction of information, structure and prediction of short term market for determining appropriate policies is vital.
Methodology
In this work, having looked at monthly statistics data (2001-2012), the reseachers tried to investigate the factors affecting the value of shares in the stock market. It is done by using a non-nested optimization model test to select the suitable model and to examine the factors affecting the value of shares in the stock market. In addition, their relationship will be described and estimated based on the VAR method. On the other hand, since the prediction of financial and capital market is efficient and stable, we can provide a framework for achieving economic growth and development. Thus, this paper will examine the structural stability and forecast it's market based on Auto Regression Moving Average process and according to the results, the applicable policies will be suggested.
Results and Discussion
The primary duty of exchange stock is providing capital stock for the government, the private, and industry sectors in the form of collecting stagnant savings and the liquidity of private sector in order to finance the long-term investment projects.
Stock Exchange is the official and confident authority where holders of stagnant savings can relatively find reliable investment places and use their surplus funds to invest on companies or buy bonds to gain a guaranteed profit.
In other words, the Stock Exchange plays a dual function in the structure of a free economy: one the one hand, it helps to increase the capital of the government and the private sector, and on the other hand, it creates the secondary market to meeting the potential and actual investors. Investigation, controlling and conducting the market can lead to the financial resources of the capital market and investment for development and growth and the policies are planned on the basis of the goals of macroeconomic. Economists believe one of the reasons for the lack of the development of developing countries is the low level of investment. In this regard, the capital market is the main and important centre to attract these savings. Accordingly, we should identify its influential factors in the market, and thus use appropriate policies for the progression and growth of the market.
Achieving the optimal growth and development of economy without mobilization of financial resources in long term is impossible. In this regard, the position and the role of capital market are of high importance.
The capital market, which is the market of demand and supply of financial resources, can play a vital role when the process of supply and demand of its financial sources is the optimal allocations. The main prerequisite for the optimal allocations of resources in the capital market is the efficiency in their performance.
Thus, the difference between effective and efficient capital markets with inefficient markets is in the phenomenon of information and having access to them.
As the information related to the capital market (for a comprehensive, coherent and effective market activity) increases, the impact of the capital market on the growth and development of economy becomes more.
Conclusions and Suggestions
Thus, policy makers should pay attention to the Stock Exchange, its flourishing growth and to government policies, control the foreign exchange market, prevent the uncontrolled growth of liquidity, eliminate the cumbersome investment regulations and incentives tax, and finally draw a plan for implementation of economic policies.
In this regard, it is essential the country's economic managers identify macro-economic variables affecting the stock market, especially government-controlled variables and how their influence can lead to appropriate policies for the stimulatation of the market and growth of economy.
